What really drives revenue, and where the next pound should go.
Marketing mix modelling, incrementality testing and geo-experiments that show what drives sales across online and offline channels, including sales through third-party retailers.
Channels report their own performance. Sales happen across many routes to market. Platform numbers flatter some activity and hide the rest. The question is simple: which marketing creates sales that would not have happened anyway, and what should the next budget decision be?
Modelling and testing, used together.
Modelling explains the whole picture; experiments prove the parts that matter most. We use both, so recommendations hold up when budgets move.
Marketing mix modelling
Patterns in spend, sales and other influences such as seasonality are used to estimate each channel’s contribution across web, app, retail and offline.
Incrementality and geo-experiments
Controlled tests, including geographic holdouts where appropriate, that show whether activity creates additional results rather than claiming them.
Attribution
The relationship between touchpoints and outcomes, used to add journey-level detail to the modelled view.
Ongoing measurement
Automated pipelines, refreshed models and dashboards, so decisions are revisited as performance changes rather than once a year.
What you receive
Every engagement ends with a decision a team can act on, backed by evidence it can explain to a board.
- Marketing contribution analysis by channel and campaign
- Response curves showing how returns change as spend rises
- Marginal acquisition cost: the cost of the next customer
- Test plans, experiment design and findings
- Budget recommendations and scenario planning
- Dashboards and ongoing measurement programmes
Business situations we see most often
Examples of how the work is applied, not claims about specific client results.
The relationship between marketing activity and sales across direct and retail channels, including third-party retailers.
Longer customer journeys, conversion and marketing contribution over time.
Audience sustainability and monetisation, with performance information organised to show commercial priorities.
Media contribution compared across locations, informing local and group-level budgets.
The same evidence in buy-side diligence and after investment, when acquisition efficiency is on the value-creation plan.
Measurement that stands up to investor questions about marketing efficiency.
Find out where the next pound should go.
A first conversation is usually enough to frame the question and the evidence you would need. Based in London, working across the UK and Europe.
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